Big Life Update + DFS
Sanai, Mar 27 2014
So some huge updates, much of it due to LP. A few months back I got heavily involved in daily fantasy sports as a result of Daut's first blog about his fantasy football performances. I was never a big fantasy guy before, but the daily variant ended up becoming a massive passion for me. I played almost exclusively basketball and it was the perfect time to get involved. Made accounts on the three biggest sites: FanDuel, DraftKings, and Draftstreet.
One day in mid-January or so I was taking a break from making a lineup and started exploring the FanDuel site. I was mainly looking for promos, but the fact that FD started as a tech startup caught my interest. I'd been involved in co-founding a tech startup before and I'm knowlegeable about the community so I started reading up on them. I clicked over the Jobs section and saw that they were advertisting for a position that was very much in line with my work experience at previous startups so I applied.
Fastforward a couple months and here I am as the new Promotions and Events Manager for FanDuel. FanDuel is pretty much the undisputed largest daily fantasy sports site and they're expanding hard right now. A big part of that expansion is increasing the number and scale of live events. My responsibilities cover conceiving of, planning, and executing these live events from start to finish as well as helping across the board on promotions and user retention for all major online events.
My first big project which we just launched today is the World Fantasy Baseball Championship. It's the daily fantasy spin on the World Series of Poker: 11 distinct fantasy baseball events with $5mill in prizes spread out. All of this culminates in a weekend at the Vegas Cosmopolitan where we'll be playing out (live) the finals for 4 different tournaments, including the flagship Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship with a $1million first place prize.
Anyway, I know there are some daily fantasy grinders here on LP and you guys were my inspiration for getting involved in this industry in the first place so thanks! Don't hesitate to check out our NBA flagship event either (http://www.fanduel.com/dfbbc). As a FD employee I can't play on FD anymore, but we all have accounts on other sites to feed our addiction so I will always be available to talk picks and strategy.
And since I am an LP member at heart always, don't hesitate to hit me up if you guys have any issues playing on FD or have any questions about anything. Msg me here on LP or email me at email@example.com.
Friday Night NBA DFS
Sanai, Feb 07 2014
Refreshing Thursday off (not) and I'm back to the daily fantasy grind. Wednesday was an interesting night. I did well, think I had an ROI of about 55-60%. I learned a couple of things as well. My DWade pick did not pan out like I hoped, but Griff dropped a bomb on MIA. Also, a couple of games that looked like they were going to blowouts ended up being close and that worked out for me. I was nowhere near some of the biggest totals of the night, but I still felt good after looking at those lineups because my projections underperformed while theirs massively overperformed (fuck you jeff green). Basically, it wasn't something I could have accurately predicted given my current analytical style so I'm glad to come out with a solid profit on a night like that.
There were some Thur+Fri leagues available, but I skipped cuz Thur's 2 games looked like a DFSer's nightmare. TOnight's a big night though. Gonna keep it quick and dirty:
Think Wall is a great pick tonight. Cleveland sucks vs PGs and he's been on a tear. Only fear is that Kyrie is a gametime decision. If he doesn't play, it could turn into a blowout.
On the subject of WAS v CLE, I fit Jarrett Jack into most of my lineups tonight. He's already starting at SG tonight and if Kyrie is sick/out, then his value jumps. WAS has some solid options as well: I expect both John Wall and Brad Beal to have good-to-amazing nights.
Rondo is officially out for tonight. I read on ESPN that Bradley's ankle is iffy and makes him a GTD so I considered fitting Pressey or Bayless in as a cheap PG option. Probably will go with Pressey if I do this since he seems to be getting minutes priority over Bayless (though I think Bayless is the better player overall).
Terrence Ross and DeMar DeRozan are good SG options. I think I prefer Ross for the price and the fact that he dropped 51 pts on the Clips last time they clashed.
Jamal Crawford is another option for me as I think he will carry more offensive responsibility tonight against a Toronto defense that stifles PFs.
Lots of juicy pickups at the SF position in the LAL v PHI game. RKelly, WJohnson, ETurner are a few of my favorites. I fully expect those two teams to unleash the frustrations of their respectively shitty seasons on each other. It helps that each team's defense is about as protective as a see-through negligee.
KD's price tag is still too high for my taste, though I think he drops another 50+ FPs here against Orlando.
Many viable PFs on the menu tonight, though not necessarily the expensive ones. I'm probably getting at least one stud for this slot and another for PG, then filling up the rest with midtier value picks. Melo looks good against a Denver defense that has suffered against PFs all season. Blake has proven himself essentially matchup proof in my eyes, but still I think there are better spots to draft him. LaMarcus against the Indiana interior is something I will look forward to watching on TV but not on my DFS site screen. I am stacking KLove and Davis together in one of my cash lineups. I think they will go to town on each other without really stopping each other in what should be a close game. Nene and TYoung are very reasonably priced and I have them in most of my lineups.
I won't be paying up for centers tonight and will be settling for Hawes and Sacre to fill up my lineups with maybe Varejao or Drummond thrown into 1 or 2 lineups here and there. I expect both Sacre and Hawes to make value and that's good enough for me.
DFS NBA Wed
Sanai, Feb 05 2014
Was gonna wait for Gadget's blogpost, but I figured I'd just go ahead and start. Seems like there's a growing interest in DFS here on LP so hopefully some of you find my thoughts on tonight's games useful. I'm pretty newb myself so please feel free to jump in if you disagree or want to discuss something further.
Wednesdays are huge nights for Daily NBA Fantasy. 12 games on schedule for tonight with a lot of minefields, hot prospects, and value picks to be found.
On a night like this, having a dependable idea of lineups is huge. Lot of fantasy sites out there have lineup projections, but I like to cross-check these with official injury reports from the teams themselves (Twitter is often the best source for these). For example, the Lakers have had some huge roster turmoil over the past day with the 2 Steves coming back and Meeks getting injured last night (ARGHHHH MY GPPPPPPS). Also, just because a player back doesn't mean I will pick him. I don't like to pick players on their first night back because they are usually on a minutes restriction anyway.
Keep in mind I play primarily on Fanduel with some action on DK. FD values assists slightly less than
Lineups for the night:
General reasoning behind lineups:
There are some choice PG picks tonight. Lowry has proven himself a monster and he has a juicy matchup against Sacramento. Kyrie playing on home turf (+10 FP differential) against a discombobulated Lakers roster? Both are solid PG picks IMO.
HOWEVER, I chose to spend most of my money in other areas so I went for cheaper PGs who I believe have high upsides. I've avoided Rondo for a while as I usually do with recently returned players, but I decided tonight was the night to invest in him because 1) his price was still relatively cheap due to the market being scared, 2) he has just as high of an upside as more expensive PGs on the board (35-45 FPs), and 3) they have consistently played him for 27-30 minutes and he has passed the screening tests. With a day of rest and a 19P/6R/10A perf under his belt, he should kill it tonight. I wanted to save my money so I used Calathes as the discount 2nd PG. No chance of Conley coming back so Calathes should see a full complement of minutes against Calderon who is not known for defense.
SG was one area where I did not want to pinch pennies, mainly because the usual stable of midtier dependable SGs just weren't there tonight. Players like Meeks, Oladipo, Tyreke, Martin, who come in around 5-6k all had bad matchups or bad ceilings tonight. DeRozan was a nobrainer - Sac is notoriously shitty against guards and DeRozan's style is perfect against them. I went with Wade because he's had a full day of rest and when he plays, LBJ tends to hook him up. Also, check Heat's other game this year against LAC. Most importantly, both SGs here were significantly cheaper than the other S-class studs on schedule, but have similar high upside.
SFs were tough. You either emptied your pockets for Durant or LBJ (even Gay is expensive nowadays) or you tried to find value where you could. I dipped into the CLE-LAL matchup and chose Wesley Johnson for several reasons: 1) He is starting at SF tonight and there really is no one else to take that spot from him, 2) he filled up the scoreboard quite nicely last time against CLE, 2)CLE is 3rd worst in the league against SFs in the last 15 games (keep trying Deng). I considered Deng as an option here, but I thought WJ could provide similar value for cheaper. Also, in the event of a blowout, Deng will sit sooner than WJ. Batum and JR are just solid cashgame plays who should be able to make their value (esp Batum who had a great game against the Knicks last time and faces an easier matchup against Prigioni). JR I'm less sure about, but that's what you have to deal with when you avoid the studs at SF.
PF picks were straight-forward. One stud + one value combo. Blake should do well vs MIA, he's really their main scoring option, and MIA has always struggled with aggressive post guys. Same for Carmelo against Portland, he's going to be shooting the ball a lot, and he dropped like 37 on them last time so it was an easy bet for me. I think the more interesting picks at PF were my value picks. I was searching for the perfect forward from the BOS-PHI matchup and I settled on Jared Sullinger. PHI has no PFs I'd like to spend money on so I looked to Boston. Boston's front court is one of those annoying ones where everyone gets around 20-25 minutes per game in a vacuum and you kinda have to be able to pick out whoever's getting hot that week. JS is hot right now, he's won himself 30+ minutes over the past 2 games, and one of those games was against PHI where he dropped 24P/17R. Bass was the cheaper option b/c he is the current option over Humphries and I think he can scramble up a bottom-of-the-barrel double double tonight against PHI (~10/12), which is all he needs to make value.
Just want to go on record and say that I am a huge Boogie fan and because of this emotional weakness, I do tend to pick him when I can over equivalent candidates (obv not when I think he's weaker). Luckily for me, his price has gone down a bit on FD, what with fears over his ankle injury and such. I gave him space on his first game back and, well, you can check the stats. I think he has a great matchup tonight against Valanciunas. The spread is +/-1 and it's predicted to be a high-scoring game. As for Varejao, he should have a field day against the Lakers' Gasol-less interior. Good thing about Centers is that even if they are not the scoring option (Kyrie is in this case), they can easily make value through boards given the right matchup. This was the right matchup IMO.
So there you have my breakdown for tonight. I rarely follow the roto sites' "suggested plays" these days, except for some double-checking and such, so I realize my picks may be a little unconventional. I see a lot of Wall, Beal, Deng, Vucey and other people being touted about. I'm interested to see how this night goes b/c it's probably my most deviant lineup from the popular columns.
I know the games already started so my bad. Meant to post this sooner. Will try to do that next time if people want.